Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Technique to lower our taxes


Here is a technique to lower our taxes and improve the quality of our portfolio. And that technique is bond swapping. A bond swap is nothing but a new technique whereby the investors choose to sell a bond and simultaneously buy another bond with the proceeds from the sale. Fixed-Income securities are the best securities for bond swapping because the two bonds have similar features in terms of credit quality, coupon, maturity and price. In Bond swap, we sell one fixed income holding for another in order to take advantage of current market and better meet our current investment objectives. But why we should consider swapping?

Swapping is a very effective investment tool to

· Increase the quality of our portfolio

· Increase our total return.

· Benefit from interest rate changes

· Lower our taxes.

When bond swapping is holding so many advantages, why will one not choose to opt for bond swapping? There is wide variety of swaps in generally available to help us meet our specific goals.

Swapping for Quality:

A quality swap is a type of swap where we are looking to move from a low quality bond which yields low credit to one which yields high credit or vice versa.

Swapping to Increase Yield:

We can sometimes improve the taxable or tax-exempt returns on our portfolio by employing a number of different bond-swapping strategies. In general, longer-maturity bonds will typically yield more than those of a shorter maturity bonds will; therefore, extending the average maturity of a portfolio’s holdings can boost yield.

Anticipating Interest Rates

If we believe that the overall level of interest rates is likely to change, we may choose to make a swap designed to benefit or help you protect your holdings.

If we believe that rates are likely to decline, it may be appropriate to extend the maturity of our holdings. we will be reducing reinvestment risk of principal and positioning for potential appreciation as interest rates trend down. Conversely, if we think rates may increase, we might decide to reduce the average maturity of holdings in our portfolio. A swap into shorter-maturity bonds will cause a portfolio to fluctuate less in value, but may also result in a lower yield.

If Bond market is best place to play in then everything related to bonds are safe. I think the bond swapping is best when we want to sell our bond in order to purchase another high yielding bond or buy a quality yielding bond.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Y 2 invest in Bonds ??


Hi buddies!

I was thinking as to why invest only in bonds when there is share market available for us. But later thought why not have deep insights on the bonds. So here is my article.

Every individual has many dreams. Everybody want to prosper in some or the other way. . A common man tends to have a beautiful home with all amenities, well-studying children, a big car and a retired peaceful life And for progressing there are many ways. And one among them is Bonds. Bonds classically have a predictable stream of payments and repayment of principal; many people invest in them to preserve and increase their capital or to receive dependable interest income. Whatever the purpose may be either saving for their children’s education or a new home, increasing retirement income or any of a number of other financial goals—investing in bonds can help you achieve your objectives.

Many financial advisor's say that Bonds are useful only for retirement plans. But it’s not true. Bonds are useful at every stage of life. Its true at the final stage of life, that is what we call retirement Bonds are real source of stable income. But bonds not only help at the last stage of life but it also helps in the beginning of our life. The traditional fixed benefit plan has been increasing at a rapid speed because these plans are offering greater individual freedom to select any investment options which suits their lifestyle, as a result, giving them the fixed income. Share market is more risky than the Bond Market; never know what happens in the fluctuations. And there is no predictable stream of income. But bonds are useful and helpful too.

Bonds can:


  • provide investment stability to help buffer against the volatility of the stock market.
  • pay a steady stream of income, sometimes tax-free income, which can help with living expenses.
  • provide high rates of return to grow your capital.
  • Play different roles at different points in your life to help you achieve your financial goals.

In the present scenario, the European Government bonds has advanced to the third day too. Europe’s Benchmark which was down from near the highest in almost five years was helped by a Worldwide rally in Bond Market only after the Bear Stearns Co/- offered 3.$2 billion to bail out a hedge fund. And to compound the European Bond rally, there are concerns that the U.S property market and the sub prime loans remain the hot topic by which the European Bonds will be rallying for more two to three days.

In my opinion, investing in bonds is comparatively safer than stocks, but less yielding than them. And I think that the European bond market would rally for next 3 days because since the U.S property market is not doing well.


Sunday, June 24, 2007

Bond


Bonds or Debt securities are generally entitled to the holder to a fixed rate of interest during their life and repayment of the amount of the bond at maturity. Bonds are generally issued by the governments, financial institutions and companies. Normally, the Issuers undertake to pay investors a fixed rate of interest for a fixed number of years. The fact that the interest rates are fixed makes the bond market attractive because their return is predictable. Bonds are traded in Open Markets in the same way as shares. Bonds are generally issued for a fixed term (the maturity) longer than ten years. U.S Treasury securities issue debt with life of ten years or more, which is a bond. New debt between one year and ten years is a Note. And new debt less than a year is a bill.

Though the terminology is different, a Bond is simply a Loan but in the form of a security. The Borrower is equivalent to the Issuer and the Lender is equivalent to the Bond Holder.

Bond Market

The bond market is a financial market where participants buy and sell debt securities usually in form of bonds. The size of the international bond market is an estimated $45 trillion of which the size of outstanding U.S bond market debt is $25.2 trillion. The "bond market" usually refers to the government bond market because of its size, liquidity, lack of credit risk and therefore, sensitivity to interest rates. Because of the inverse relationship between bond valuation and interest rates, the bond market is often used to indicate changes in interest rates or the shape of the yield curve. A government bond is a bond issued by a national government denominated in the country’s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. Government Bonds are usually referred to as Risk-Free Bonds because the government can raise taxes or simply print more money to redeem the bond at maturity.

But sometimes, bonds play in a very different role.

For ex: During the bear market of March 2000 to October 2002 the Nasdaq stocks took their biggest plunge since the Great Depression. The NASDAQ lost nearly three-quarters of its value. But bonds saved the day for many investors, turning in good-digit returns each year and smoothing out holders' investment performance.

The Question is as to why investing in bonds isn’t paying off?

Yields in the U.S bonds are hovering near 40-year lows. 10-year & 30-year U.S government bonds are currently yielding less than 5%. Earlier the U.S 10yr Treasury note used to gain 8% plus average but from past five years, the average gain has been only 4.4%.

It is said that Americans life is also concerned with the Bonds. The fact is that to add to the problem, Americans are living longer than ever. The average life expectancy in the U.S. has increased. So their living up probability is increasing. That means investments have to pull double duty. Thus the pay off is less while investing in bonds.

The Yield before 2002 was fantastic but after 2002, the Yield of bonds has decreased slightly and slightly and now the average yield of a bond is only 4%. The factors are several. Some of them are the housing data, unemployment, retail sales, share market fluctuations and war situations. Amidst all this, one can anticipate probable returns from the bonds.

Present Scenario:

European government bonds are advancing on a day by day basis in London. The yield on the 10-year bond fell 3 basis points to 4.62 percent in London. The price of the 4.25 percent bond gained 0.24, or 2.4 Euros per 1,000-euro. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

I think that Government bonds are always safe to invest and there is predictable return of money in anyways.



Friday, June 22, 2007

Bear Market


A Market is called a Bear Market when the Stock market falls for a prolonged period of time, usually by twenty percent or more. Any Market in which prices exhibit a declining trend with 20% or more fall then there exists a Bear Market. The Decline in the Stock prices is normally due to decrease in corporate profits or corrections of over-valuation (i.e. Stocks were too expensive and fell to more reasonable levels). Investors who are afraid by these lower earnings or lofty valuations sell their stock causing the price to drop. This action causes other investors to worry about losing the money they’ve invested. So they will sell as well. So here the Bear market cycle starts.

One of the best examples of a prolonged bear market is that of 1970's when gold stocks went sideways for well over a decade. Experiences such as these are generally what scare would-be investors away from investing. Ironically, this keeps the bear market alive; because no few buyers are purchasing investments, the selling continues.

The Two Fundamentals principles you have to bear in mind while you are in Bear Market. They are:

1.) A bear market is only bad if you plan on selling your tock or need your money immediately.

2.) Falling stock prices and depressed markets are the friend of the long-term, value investor.

In other words, if we invest with the intent to hold our investments for decades, a bear market is a great opportunity to buy. The principle amazes everybody as the principle is sell only after the market has fallen. The good time to sell when we are in bear market is before our stocks lose value.


3 steps decides things in Bear market

  • Sit tight and let the market work through its problems.
  • Take advantage of the price decline and add to your holdings if you believe nothing has fundamentally changed with the company.
  • Sell before the loss becomes worse.

On 13th June 2007, all indexes were doing their best and that day was called red-letter day. And the Dow achieved its best one day advance in this year 2007. But from the technical standpoint the markets continued to weaken. And earlier too the stocks have been much declining instead of advancing. All were expecting that there would be a chance of bear market cycle to start. But it is too early to tell if the bear market has started, because 13th June’s stock market decline has reinforced the technical weakness in the market.

In my opinion rather than Bull Market, Bear Market is a safe place to stay in but provided we have a tight view on the markets.


http://beginnersinvest.about.com/cs/marketanalysis/a/031701a.htm

http://www.investorsadv.com/category/market-commentary/


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Thursday, June 21, 2007

Deflation Front


Since, I have started up with explaining carry trade , I want to continue to write on the various financial terms .The next big term concerning currencies and markets is deflation.


Deflation is the economic and financial phenomenon which represents declining prices particularly for goods and services. It can occur in countries with strengthening currencies. Here, the cost of imports would tend to decline. It can also occur in countries which are experiencing depressed economic conditions. At such times of declining output, sales of assets generate considerable downside pressure on prices. Deflation can be viewed in monetary terms when the money supply is constricting to such an extent that one unit of currency purchases increases to the amount of goods and services.

Generally Deflation occurs when the supply of goods rises faster than the supply of money which is dependable on the following four factors.

Factors which may cause Deflation:

1. The supply of money goes down.

2. The supply of other goods goes up.

3. Demand for money goes up.

4. Demand for other goods goes down.

The Third factor of Deflation supports this following example, the Euro-Dollar duos have been doing mixed fluctuations till 15th June 2007. But there were chances for Dollar-Yen and Dollar-Swiss to make marginal new highs. . The dollar-yen and the dollar-Swiss currencies were expected to go up. But the dollar gains are always risky because there is always a concern of deflations in U.S.D. And with concern to the Euro, the Dollar has faced deflation on June 15th, 2007. As of now, they are no reasons for deflation but there is a speculation that the dollar deflation may occur.

So, every Deflation has two sides to talk about. Sometimes Deflation is good and sometimes it is bad. Good Deflation is when any company produces the goods at the lowest cost. When there is Good Deflation it helps the Country’s GDP growth to remain constant and strong, profit growth to surge and unemployment to fall without inflationary consequence. On the other side, Bad Deflation occurs when the companies cannot reduce the cost structure while producing the goods. Thus Bad deflation occurs when there is relative decline in the supply of money.

http://economics.about.com


http://www.google.co.in/

http://en.wikipedia.org

..

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Asian Strategy




Before moving to the stock market, let’s discuss some news from the galaxy.

Hey buddies, the Atlantis space shuttle which is one of the Fleet of space shuttles belonging to U.S National Aeronautics and Space administration has been on its 28th mission STS-117. There are eight astronauts traveling with the Atlantis and Sunita Williams an Asian woman has set a new record by being in the space for 188 days. The Atlantis space shuttle has undocked on Tuesday to International Space shuttle after overcoming a computer-meltdown and repairing the heat shield of the shuttle. So a woman Astronaut from Asia has created a record for the longest stay in Space. Isn’t it good news for all the Asian’s? Hat’s off to Sunita Williams, we salute you for your bravery and making feel the women community proud about your achievement.

So that was the news from Space, Let’s move from Space to Stocks…

The Tokyo stock market has closed its shares with a mixed fluctuation by moving high and low at the Wall Street. But the Key Nikkei Index somehow ran to finish the rally in a positive atmosphere. The Nikkei 225 Stock average gained 14 points yesterday making it the highest at the end of the day. The Kangroo’s Australian stock market also moved higher after recovering from the earlier losses. Rio Tinto is a multinational mining group and is one of the world’s largest mining companies listed in Australian Stock market rose to its highest accompanied by BHP Billiton Limited which is also a one of world’s largest mining company has also ended up being higher in its company shares.


Beware of Yen


Hi buddies!!

Hey as earlier we already discussed as to what is carry-trade does really mean? And what are the reasons as to why many people are opting for so-called stoozing which is now carrying a new name called Carry-Trade. From past few months the Japanese Currency the Yen has been in a depreciating condition and was a victim of Carry Trade (CT). Many traders used to borrow money at a low-interest rate and used to buy higher-yielding assets in a different currency. And those who have borrowed money using the Japanese currency have enjoyed a lot of profits. But its time now for the traders to be careful with the low-estimated currency, because the Bank of America has revealed that the Yen is going to move in an upwards trend almost above 4.5% against the dollar and against the Euro too. The expert panel in the Currency market are eager to see the Yen growing up to 4.5% in the coming months, as their would be an interest rate hike in the Japanese currency in the month of August’ 2007.

I don’t think so that the yen is going to make a good yield since this was the same thing been stated from many days. So lets see how things will work out with regards to the Yen. But my humble suggestion is since CT is always risky, so be vigilant.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Un-Altered Interest Rates


The Bank of Japan has held its interest rates at 0.5%. This decision of BOJ has surprised many as some of the fellow investors were thinking of hike in the interest rates. But this decision has followed a recent dip in the consumer prices. And resulted in Yen’s weakness. This un-altered interest rate has sent the yen to a one week low against the Euro. Expert Panel on the Currency market are recommending that the rates will remain unchanged till next month’ (ie. Till July’2007) meeting of the BOJ with respect to the Japanese currency. So it is clear that carry traders can enjoy by sitting back in their seats with yen as their professional tool.

In my opinion the carry-traders can enjoy their profits as long as the Japanese currency market is weak, but it is not quite sure when the market will recover. So, In my opinion the carry traders should be more careful with regards of using yen as their profit-making tool.

Monday, June 18, 2007

Two-Fold Carry Trade-



Some people can refuse to give in to the temptation of free money. Hence the recent fashion for stoozing has reached to their rescue. Stoozing is a slang term used to describe the act of borrowing money at 0% (typically on credit cards) and earning interest on the money and paying it back before the 0% period ends. In effect, it is free money for little work as long as the borrower is good with paper work and can keep up the minimum payments required. Hence those few people were borrowing large sums on credit cards with a 0% interest rate and investing the proceeds in a savings account.

But soon Stoozing has gone out of the trend since most credit cards began charging a balance transfer fee.

But not to worry, there is new fashion now in institutional circles, the same stoozing goes by with a more respectable name called carry trade. But the principle is the same; borrow money at a cheaper rate than you can earn on an investment elsewhere, then sit back and enjoy the profits.

But the big difference is that carry trades are a lot more dangerous than stoozing.

  • Firstly, rather than being invested in a safe savings account, the money increasingly flows into riskier places, such as emerging market assets.
  • Secondly, carry trades are often cross-currency carry trades, which carry extra risks.

In a currency carry trade, the speculator borrows money in a low-interest rate currency and buys higher-yielding assets in a different currency.

These days, the low-rate currency is generally the Japanese Yen; the higher-yielding assets are often US dollar bonds or the U.K Bonds or Currencies.

The carry trade is alluring many because of the type of returns it earns and especially when the earnings are invested in bonds. But state you for every thing there exists two-folds.

On one side of the coin carry trade fetches more money and has a steady income stream, but on the other side the carry trades can go from profit to loss with almost no warning. There is no intimation of arrival of losses in carry trades, they are like cyclones, coming all of a sudden and taking away everything from us.

So before going for any carry trade pop up the pros and cons and then proceed buddies.

Last Week the Yen was hammered in the forex market. The Bank of Japan Meeting has decided to keep the interest at 0.5% the lowest among all the major currencies. This news has made the carry traders continue to rejoice with the non-move in the interest rates.

Friday, June 15, 2007

All's gonna new wid FTSE



U.K’s FTSE 100 index had its biggest gain in three months (i.e from March 15th till June 14th). The benchmark gained by 1.4%. The Key reason for increase in the index was because the investors concern to raise the interest rates has eased. This one-day gain of FTSE 100 is the biggest since March 15th of this year.


And apart from this the world’s third biggest mining company Rio Tingto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd shares have gone up as the copper prices and crude oil prices have increased. Rio Tinto added 3.2 percent. BHP Billiton shares had increased to 2.4 percent. The Crude oil increased to above $67 a barrel in New York and the Copper prices increased as miners plan to strike in Chile, the world's largest source of the metal, and in other mining nations, threatening to curtail output, so the copper price has been increased


Apart from this the U.K FTSE Bids for world domination

The Index company FTSE is embarking on a global advertising campaign in a bid to promote the brand as the ‘definitive benchmark’. The firm is gonna use a new strap line.


FTSE… Its how the world says Index.


i.e Spread the word that FTSE stands for a great deal –The company’s best know product. This strapline is gonna attract lots of customers.


In my opinion the U.K’s FTSE will go ahead to the peak in the Stock market and moreover it is now launching a new strapline to increase its value. I hope this effort of the index company will work out in a very positive manner.


So why not wish FTSE index…All the Best